How might Israel be Operating in Iran

Note: The following thread from X was interpreted by some Iranian nationalists, in the diaspora and Iran regime fans alike, as being a call for the balkanization of Iran. This is absolutely not the case, merely an description of the current facts on the ground, facts that foreign intelligence are likely to be using to infiltrate the country.

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How is Israel able to act in Iran, assassinating scientists and terror chiefs at will?

How fragile is Iran? (tldr: very.)

One map and one chart explain this and more:

Iran is a patchwork of ethnicities, with 52% of its population being non-Persian. Each of the other groups would rather be self governing, or even part of other states. (1/6)

Conveniently for these ethnic groups, there are effectively open borders that link them with their ethnic kin.

The loyalties of Kurds, Arabs, Azeris, Balochs, Pashtuns and a dozen others, are to their clan and ethnicity much more than they are to any Persian religious fanatics who have brought them to ruinous poverty.

The Azeris border their homeland of Azerbaijan, an Israeli ally, and are 30% of the population. They have oil, and want to be free; and Israeli-ally Azerbaijan (which unlike Iran, has a real military) is surely waiting for the opportunity to help them. (2/6)

Look at this chart: Fully 45% are openly secular, irreligious, atheist or agnostic. Another 8% are Zoroastrians, the original Persian religion that pre-dates the Islamic conquest.

Only 32% profess the same Shiite religion of the oppressive, millenarian cult, that has ruined the lives of 3 generations now. And certainly a large portion of them are Shiites, but have no interest in the loopy theology of the Mullahs. (3/6)

Pay attention to the images of the IRGC members. Note how they are almost all portly men in late middle age.

They are original 1979 revolutionaries. They are not replacing themselves with a younger generation, since, like boomers everywhere, they are hated. (4/6)

All this makes it impossible for Iran to field a real army,—they need the small part of society that is genuinely loyal to them to serve as a Palace Guard, to protect the 1979 revolution from counter-revolution.

This is why they resort to deterring their enemies with stand-off weapons (missiles, drones and mercenary proxies)—it's all they can afford as a deterrent to the internal and external threats they face.

To this end, they have destroyed the once functioning, if poor, states of Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Just to provide an external bulwark to keep their enemies at bay. (5/6)

So now we know four things:

1. Why penetrating Iran with spies is easy.
2. Why the Iranian regime cannot field a real army.
3. Why they love their rockets so much.
4. Why the regime is doomed, sooner or later.

(It also explains why a wannabe superpower lost its presidential helicopter, and needed to ask other states for help finding it. The entire regime is a dysfunctional, potemkin charade.) (6/6)

PS: Now that we know all this, and also know

1. that Haniyeh was killed by a shoulder launched missile from a nearby mountainside who then got away into the night undetected, and

2. we remember that Raisi was on a long planned helicopter trip in a mountainous Azeri area when his helicopter disappeared,

...does "accident" seem the most likely explanation for Raisi's untimely demise?